Senate Night Tracker

The closest race in the betting markets is —, where traders give the Democratic-side candidate —. — of 11 races called so far.

Projected Democratic seats —of 100

Expected seats if each of these 11 races goes to Democrats as often as the markets say (called races count as won or lost). If every race goes to the current market favorite: —.

Democrats need — for control, since Vice President Vance breaks ties. Assumes Democrats hold — seats outside these 11 races (34 not up this year, 12 of their own seats on the ballot that aren’t close, and North Carolina, where markets give Roy Cooper about 98% to flip it), and counts Osborn, an independent, on the Democratic side.

Senate control · market average —Dem

Average of Kalshi (—) and Polymarket (—). Traded: —

Races called —of 11

Dem side — · Rep — · counting —

Odds as of —

The 10 closest races, plus Florida

Sorted by the Democratic side's average market odds, best for Democrats first. Florida isn't close; it's here because it usually reports first. Odds are the price of the Democratic-side candidate (Osborn is an independent). Vote counts are AP figures via NBC News; “counted” is the share of the expected vote.

				Market odds (Dem side)			Vote count
State	Status	Dem side	Republican	Kalshi	Polymarket	Average	Counted	Dem side	Rep	Last polls close (ET)

How the odds have moved

Democratic-side win probability over the last —, as the average of Kalshi and Polymarket (Louisiana is Polymarket only), 50% line dashed. Hover the chart for exact values.

Dem side favored nowRepublican favored now

Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket public APIs (last traded price; Kalshi has no Louisiana market), NBC News election results feed with AP data. The server refreshes every 2 minutes and this page checks for new numbers every minute.